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The best bets to win the 2023 Masters

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So here it is, it’s the Masters, everybody’s having fun.

So said Noddy Holder, and that without realising this is the most fascinating of the recent Masters. Yeah, including that one when Tiger did the ‘impossible.’ Again.

There are pages and pages written about Augusta National, and readers will find the information in a myriad of places, including the official Masters course index.

 

The course has its infamous nuances – the dog-legs with reverse slopes and the ultra-fast greens, but to combat the lengthier players Augusta made significant changes over the last couple of years.

In 2022, the organisers extended the par-4 11th hole -‘Dogwood’ – by 35 yards, whilst also adding 20 yards to the par-5 15th, giving players a little more to think about when judging an aggressive second shot over Rae’s Creek.

This year they’ve made a hugely significant change to ‘Azelea’, the famous par-5 13th hole, adding 35 yards but also making the hole far more claustrophobic from the tee.

It’s enough that we now have changes that might just stop the regular eagles, but the current weather forecast suggests the week goes from bad to worse in terms of wind and rain, though for viewers it could make this the most open of Masters. For us sadists, this is great news!

And then there is LIV.

No fewer than 18 golf ‘rebels’ tee it up against their former PGA Tour colleagues this year and they could not have timed it better.

Four-time major champ Brooks Koepka was victorious in Orlando last weekend, with Patrick Reed and Dustin Johnson close behind. Although looking to carry an injury, Cam Smith, winner of The Players and The Open Championship last year, was in contention until midway through the final round. It’s certainly hotting up.

Since 2010, only Bubba Watson has won the green jacket more than once, so Masters maidens are very welcome to this year’s feast, though throughout the event’s history they will need to be almost extraordinary to counter the lack of course experience.

Best Bet – Xander Schauffele 

The top of the market looks extremely strong, though I’d favour Scottie Scheffler over Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy given a stunning run of play that includes two wins in seven 2023 starts. He looks almost bombproof and but for a missed five-footer at Bay Hill and a lack of concentration when tired at the Match Play, could easily be going for a fourth consecutive win.

He can’t make a mistake at around 7/1 though and with the weather expected to be extremely influential, that is short enough.

We have to look at strong each-way payouts and that seems to limit us to just a handful. Of those, 29-year-old Xander strongly fits the bill.

The Nevada resident ranks in the top-10 of the OWGR, and will arrive at Augusta after a progressive run of form that started after his withdrawals from the opening Tournament of Champions with back pain.

Since then, Xander has gone seven from seven, with top-10s at the American Express and Pheonix, and fast-closing efforts when 13th at Torrey Pines and 19th at Sawgrass.

Last time out at the Match Play in Austin, the selection won all his group matches, beating Cam Davis 4&3, Aaron Wise 2&1 and Tom Hoge 1-up after birdie at the last hole. In the quarters, he led or tied with the in-form Rory McIlroy for 17 of the 18 holes, succumbing only to a 12-foot birdie putt by his opponent in a match that produced a better-ball 59.

 

Make of it what you will, but Masters winners Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and defending champ Scheffler have all won the WGC Match Play, so anything resembling a quality performance can only be a bonus.

Certainly his form this year has a better ‘feel’ than when missing the Masters cut a year ago, his first missed weekend in five starts and spoiling an Augusta record of second, 17th and third from 2019 to 2021. That said, it’s doubtful Xander will again leave himself a 50-foot putt and walk off for a rain break, as he did last season, something that seemed to put him off his game for too long. We should remember, too, that those two medal finishes were a one-shot runner-up to Tiger Woods after a final round 68, and a three shot defeat behind Hideki Matsuyama when just one hole (par-3 16th) cost him a treble bogey six and the end of any charge.

Winner of seven PGA Tour events that could have been eight bar an ironic play-off loss to Rory McIlroy when defending his WGC HSBC Champions crown in 2019, he notably has a tremendous record at nearby East Lake, home of the Tour Championship where he has figures of 6/3/1/2/7/1.

Xander is a major machine, landing nine top-10s and three further top-15 finishes in 22 starts, and whilst it was a toss-up between here and the U.S Open, he’s been a fancy for the green jacket for quite a while. He’s won each year since 2017 bar Covid year, so there is one coming, and it may as well be at Augusta. I’ve been on each of the last three years and there seems no reason to desert him yet.

Danger – Jordan Spieth

Danger – Sungjae Im

Danger – Corey Conners

Given the expected weather, it’s very hard to leave out Jordan Spieth, who has never been shy about his love of golf in difficult conditions.

 

In eight starts, the Texan has won once (in soft conditions), and finished second and third on four other occasions, including when dropping six shots in three holes to hand surprise winner Danny Willett the green jacket.

His positive stats have allied concerns surrounding the loss of form with the putter, showing well enough at Bay Hill, Sawgrass and Copperhead, but it’s the intelligent way he plots himself around the course that makes him the main danger this week.

A mere glance at Spieth’s best form shows a player very much at home in the wind, with the current world number 16 very much at his best at the likes of Pebble Beach, Deere Run and, of course, The Open, where in 2017 he overcame poor weather to win by three shots.

Since his win at the RBC Heritage last May, Spieth has racked up six top-10 and a further five top-20 finishes, including when having chances at the Pheonix, Arnold Palmer and Valspar.

Winner of three events in April throughout his career, the Masters has always looked to be ‘his’ tournament. He can prove that this week.

Sungjae Im is very simple to write about.

 

The 25-year-old Korean is put in around the same price as Will Zalatoris (price based on older majors form) and Viktor Hovland (just okay form here and a short game that is regressing from the very average) and that cannot be right.

Runner-up here in Covid year, he proved that to be nothing like a fluke when leading after the first round last year, although keeping on at just one pace to finish eighth.

Those two top-10 finishes from three starts back up an overall Georgia record that has him second, 12th and 15th at East Lake, whilst he has rarely ventured off the path of excellent tee-to-green, finding strong strokes against the field for his ball-striking in his last seven events.

Tour-tips three month tracker has the former rookie in the top-30 for ball-striking (18th) greens-in-regulation (24th) and scrambling (30th) whilst he ranks in the top five in par-5 performance, possibly the only chance of making a score this week.

In nine full-field events since the turn of the year, Sungjae missed the cut at the Sony Open, a venue he doesn’t get on well with, but has made eight cuts, including a fourth place at Torrey Pines, Scottsdale and Sawgrass.

If it becomes a grind, Sungjae is huge each-way value.

Corey Conners did nobody bar himself a favour when winning last week.

Almost certainly on the list for a good top-20 bet, his one -shot victory in Texas killed his win price by several points, yet only last year’s champ Scottie Scheffler has won the week previous to Augusta.

Still, I’d rather a player with good incoming form, as well as figures on the course, and the Canadian has those aplenty.

Form this season has been trending with just one missed-cut in eight outings spoiling a run towards that win last week.

In eighth place at halfway, the 31-year-old finished 18th at the opening Tournament of Champions, 12th at the Sony and, 21st at Bay Hill (third at halfway), before winning two of his three group games at the Match Play, losing only at the final hole to eventual runner-up Cameron Young.

Given the way Conners repeats form, it was no surprise to see him creep closer each round before eventually holding on last week, and put up yet another sterling performance for tee-to-green fans.

As at Waialae, Conners led the greens-in-regulation stats, and at both he racked up double-figures for his tee-to-green superiority, a huge factor around Augusta, where his relatively weak putting can be disguised.

Whilst he has been trending towards the victory, Conners also has progressive form here, with figures of 6/8/10/46. Should that continue, he’ll finish in fourth place, something more than possible given he is the typical horses-for-courses kind of guy.

This will go to one of the more fancied players, but I’ll be back tomorrow for the side bets.

Recommended Bets:

  • Xander Schauffele  – WIN
  • Jordan Spieth – WIN
  • Sungjae Im – WIN/Top-5
  • Corey Conners – WIN/Top-5
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2 Comments

  1. Master

    Apr 4, 2023 at 10:26 am

    Brooks

    • Jason Daniels

      Apr 4, 2023 at 1:55 pm

      Be fascinating to see how the LIV players match up these days.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What is a “wedge” anyway?

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This week’s post is somewhat of a continuation of the recent path we’ve been on, discussing the nuances of those high-loft clubs at the short end of our sets – those specialty clubs we call “wedges.” The real question might be:

“What is a ‘wedge’ anyway?”

Can that name be given to any iron-type club simply based on its loft? And if that’s the defining criteria, where do “wedge” lofts begin? And can clubs of all different design configurations still all be “wedges” just because they fall into that arbitrary range of lofts?

To the first question, my historical research indicates the term “wedge” first came into common use in the 1930s with the invention of the original sand wedge, generally credited to Gene Sarazen. As the legend goes, after flying with Howard Hughes and observing the use of flaps to make the airplane go up or down, he conceived the idea of a downward angle on the sole of a niblick to make it “reject” from the sand. So, after numerous prototypes and testing, the club that came to be known as the “sand wedge” was born.

Those clubs were about 55-56 degrees of loft, and quickly became widely adopted because of this revolutionary performance from bunkers. My guess is the term “wedge” was applied to that club because that’s exactly how you used it – you “wedged” the club between the ball and the turf – loft made the ball go up and the sole made the club “bounce” off the turf.

The professionals of the 1940s and 1950s began to use their sand wedge for more specialty shots around the greens, but most often relied on their highest lofted iron for most routine pitch shots. In sets back then, that club had 50-52 degrees of loft and was often called a “pitching wedge,” but some labeled it simply a “10-iron,” or in Ben Hogan’s case, the Equalizer.

But that club looked like the irons it matched, bearing little resemblance to the specialty “sand wedge” with its big flange and heavy sole, but I really don’t know why it was also called a “wedge.”

As iron lofts began to strengthen in the 1980s, the need for a “gap wedge” came about, as that valuable 50- to 52-degree iron was disappearing. Then at the other end of the set, the “lob wedge” appeared. Both of those clubs bore some resemblance to the sand wedge because they were most often presented as loft extensions in manufacturers’ wedge product lines.

So, now let’s fast-forward to 2023. Most iron sets have a “P-club” of rarely more than 45 degrees, and we’re seeing more and more with as low as 42 degrees of loft. Many of the iron models offer set-matching “wedges” labeled “A”, “G”, “S”, etc. to extend the iron design up into the higher lofts. These all look almost identical to the 6-iron in that set, because this industry is still caught up in the notion of “matched” sets. (But that’s a topic for another day)

In the “wedge” category, product lines can be confusingly broad, with lofts from 46 to 64 degrees and all kinds of specialized sole configurations. So, back to the original question — what is a “wedge?”

Think about it this way.

At the long end of your set, the club with 22 to 24 degrees of loft might be configured as a fairway wood, or a hybrid, or a hollow high-tech “driving iron,” or simply the 4- or 5-iron that matches your irons. Each golfer can determine which configuration serves him or her best at that loft and the distance it produces.

Likewise, the clubs at the higher loft end of your set might look like your 6-iron, or might look like a traditional wedge, or might look like one of the numerous specialty wedges with a wider sole. My “wedge” designs for Edison Golf don’t really look like any of those.

But just like those options you have to build out the long end of your set, each of those various ways to configure a higher-lofted club will produce different results.  So, can we really lump all of these high-loft options into a singular category and call all of them “wedges?”

Or is it time to come up with a totally different word to describe those high-loft clubs in our bags that have the assigned task of delivering consistent results at a range of distances as we get closer to the green?

I’m not sure I have the answer, but it should be fun for all of us to stop and ponder the question? Your thoughts, everyone?

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Opinion & Analysis

The best bets for the 2023 John Deere Classic

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Probably not quite the ‘classic’ of its name, but the John Deere provides some recall of the good and bad of golf betting.

Back in 2013, a young Jordan Spieth made his reputation by sinking a 72nd hole bunker shot to put the willies up course specialist and lumpy bet Zach Johnson. As is the way, the Deere Run guru then bogied his final hole, going on to defeat in a three man play-off.

Fast-forward nine years and J.T Poston landed a confident wager in last year’s event, leading all the way to land a comfortable three shot victory. Can’t wait to see which way it goes this time.

Expect birdies galore around the course this week, with very little difficulty in finding fairways.

With most of the field managing to hit the large greens, GIR stats are less worthy than they might otherwise be. Instead, players need to hit it close enough so they make the majority of putts. As with previous winners Bryson DeChambeau and Lucas Glover (to name just two), high-class ball-strikers can give themselves enough chances to land their share of birdies.

Current form looks a must here this week, with cross-over form from Travelers including Spieth, DeChambeau, Daniel Berger and Brian Harman, and Rocket Mortgage champions Cameron Davis and DeChambeau showing up well at this week’s venue, all recording a similar winning score.

When the market opened, I felt Emiliano Grillo would be third or fourth favourite, so finding him at a bigger price than PGA maidens Denny McCarthy, Adam Schenk and new star on the block Ludvig Aberg was a pleasant surprise.

The three names seem to have more improvement in them than the 30-year-old Argentine, but none have the victories, or the course form, to justify being ahead in the market.

McCarthy has lifted his reputation even further with his play-off loss at Muirfield and leading to halfway at River Highlands, but he faded away when under the cosh here last year, allowing the experienced Grillo to be the closest challenger to Poston (alongside Chritiaan Bezhuidenhout), whilst the 23-year-old Aberg may well be the Second Coming but faded away late on at both River Highlands and Detroit, recording large minus figures for his iron play. Sub 25-1? Really.

Schenk makes a lot of sense on recent form, with iron play making up the most of his impressive tee-to-green stats, but at anything over 25/1 in a weak field, the Charles Schwab winner appeals more than anyone.

Grillo ranks 3rd on tour-tips overall ranking for this event, with half-a-dozen instances of top-25 tee-to-green play in his last eight starts. In the same period (since Bay Hill) the Argentine has listed in the top 12 for approach play on five occasions, leading the field at the Arnold Palmer and ranking 12th at Travelers.

The 15th place at River Highlands on his last outing is the best finish there since 2018 (19th) after which Grillo suffered a slump, falling down the world rankings from 47th to 156th during 2020.

2021 saw him come back with a runner-up behind Stewart Cink at Harbour Town, following up a year later when matching his second place here with a silver medal behind a rampant Tony Finau at the 3M.

Grillo was trending in the right direction before his play-off win at Colonial, with form figures of 7/5/23 and an unconcerning missed-cut at the PGA, and the win, from a nervous Schenk, and the world number one Scottie Scheffler, reads very nicely in this field.

Whilst never the greatest putter in the world, that aspect has improved greatly. Now ranking in 6th for putting average off a large number of greens hit, he has positive figures at five of his last seven starts and comes here recalling last season’s +8.5 strokes tee-to-green and +4 strokes for the flat stick.

Doug Ghim is playing nice golf at the moment, several years after being touted as a superstar.

This test suits the short-hitting but accurate player, and with form figures of 33/15/12/19/27, he’s the type to appeal as a solid top-20 bet.

For win purposes though, I’ll revisit a Grillo formline and row in with the man that lost to the selection by just one shot at the Web.com Tour Championship some eight years ago, Chez Reavie.

I put up the 41-year-old a couple of weeks ago at a monster 200/1 to regain his 2019 Travelers crown, and he gave us a thrill until fading away on Sunday, yet still paying out a healthy return for a place.

A 2021 finish of 18th and a previous pair of top-15 finishes led to him going off around 50/1 for this event 12 months ago, and I’m not sure he’s done anything, or faces tough enough opposition, to be 10 points longer.

Previous to his latest win at the Barracuda in July last year, the three-time winner posted 27th at Colonial and 8th at River Highlands. This time, he comes here after being 12thg at the halfway stage of the Charles Schwab and in second place after three rounds in Connecticut.

Now, with six consecutive cuts made and four of his last eight rounds in the low-to-mid-60s, he arrives after recording an average of between 5.5 and 6.0 strokes for approaches and tee-to-green, a repeat of which will see him bang there come Sunday evening.

With River Highlands and Deere Run form in abundance, he’s yet another old campaigner I feel will prove too much for the young guns.

Finally, we’ll go with a pair of three-figure pokes, firstly in the way of David Lipsky, a player with two wins on the European Tour at tracks that require a touch of guile over strength.

It may be five years since the 34-year-old worked his way around Leopard Creek to back up his Crans victory, but his career has not been devoid of highlights, including a four shot victory over Taylor Pendrith at the short San Antonio course in Texas.

2021 saw him record six top-10 finishes, including at Abu Dhabi and Valderrama, whilst a year later he finished top-10 at the Corales and better-class Mexico Open behine Jon Rahm and Tony Finau.

A  season-opening top-five at the Sony promised much and, whilst it hasn’t gone that well, Lipsky can still boast top-20 finishes at the Charles Schwab and Memorial, where at halfway he was first and sixth respectively.

Always around 24th place last season, Lipsky has shown he can raise his game at a lower level, whilst two of his three victories have come in 25-under and 18-under. He can do a job when conditions suit, and at 125/1, he’ll do as a chance to gain some decent each-way money.

Next to him at 125s is 26-year-old rookie Carl Yuan, now finding his feet at this level yet massive amounts of points bigger than some of his more sexy rivals.

A winner on his home tour, he had a remarkable 2022, winning in Louisiana, and racking up a further four top-five and four top-10 finishes and getting himself in at the highest level a year after he was due.

Explaining why he missed promotion 12 months earlier, Yuan said it was every player’s dream to represent their country, so popped off to The Olympics rather than guarantee his PGA card through the final six events of 2021.

Still, he’s here now and, after a slow start, made three consecutive cuts – Houston, RSM and Sony – before another lull from mid-January.

Shaking that off, he bounced back to form with the halfway lead at the better-class Canadian Open, stating, “That’s my goal [retaining his card] coming into the week. That’s my No. 1 goal. Not a result goal, just like being in the present, hitting shot by shot and, yeah, being out here trying to have the most fun. All of it.”

It seems to be working as he finished a highly respectable 18th before landing another top-20 at Detroit last week after a third-round 64 had gotten him inside the top-10 going into payday.

This massive hitter will be able to club down for most of this week’s test, ensuring he builds on some steady seasonal figures for tee-to-green and with untold improvement to come.

There is a chance he needs a much bigger environment to thrive, but as an unexposed, potentially high-class improving recruit, he needs taking a chance with.

Recommended Bets:

  • Emiliano Grillo 
  • Chez Reavie 
  • David Lipsky 
  • Carl Yuan
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The Wedge Guy: The case against set-match wedges

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One side-effect of the relentless effort by major iron makers to win the “launch monitor wars” that pit one 6- or 7-iron against another is that the lofts throughout sets of irons have been continually strengthened to a point of what I consider ridiculousness. There are two major problems with this trend in specifications for sets of irons. The first is that to try to win the “launch monitor wars,” iron makers have to try to make their 6- and 7-irons go farther than the other guys’. That means making those mid-irons stronger in loft and using a bit of “trickery” by increasing the loft gapping between your higher-loft scoring clubs so that your “P-club” doesn’t get too strong, too (though modern “P-clubs” of 43-45 degrees of loft are really not “pitching wedges” at all).

Historically, iron lofts progressed through the set at four-degree loft intervals, and .5-inch length differentials. This wasn’t happenstance at all, it was the result of rigorous testing by professionals and average golfers. Those technical differences typically delivered consistent distance gapping from the pitching wedge down through the set.

A review of the specifications of almost every set of irons on the market today, however, will reveal that loft differentials are now five degrees between the short irons and as little as two degrees at the long end of the set. This is totally counter-intuitive to how you can improve your short iron and wedge precision. Why in the world would you want to increase the distance differences between your shorter irons, which is where you most need distance control precision? After all, a 6-iron shot that is 25 to 30 feet long or short is pretty darn good, but it sucks if you have a 9-iron or wedge in your hands.

Understand that the “holy grail” of distance in golf club design is the combination of high launch and low spin. Achieving this is relatively simple – put as much mass in the bottom of the golf clubhead as possible.

So, the second major problem caused by the “launch monitor wars” is how modern irons are designed. The early “solution” to longer-hitting mid-irons was extreme sole-weighting with thinner faces. The newer technologies we’re seeing in irons combine even faster faces with heavy tungsten inserts in the sole of the club.

But the problem with almost all irons on the market – especially in the “game improvement” category – is that this same design and technologies are applied throughout the “matched” set of irons and even into “wedges” that display that same design concept. And that’s where your prime scoring clubs are being compromised.

High launch and low spin are great in a driver or fairway wood, and maybe even desirable in your middle irons — but that is the exact opposite of what you need to achieve consistent distance precision in prime scoring range when you have a short iron or wedge in your hands.

Almost all accomplished players have learned to hit their short irons and wedges with a penetrating ball flight and lots of spin to stop the ball in its tracks once it hits the green. So why would you ever want to play short irons and wedges that have all their mass at the bottom, which is designed to deliver the exact opposite of what you should be seeking?

Now, let’s go back to the title of today’s post.

Either your 6- or 7-iron is 28 to 30 degrees of loft – but have you ever stopped to think that this loft is closer to that of your driver than to where your “wedge” lofts begin (around 45 degrees)? I feel certain that no golfer in the history of the world has ever proclaimed

“I really like my 7-iron. Can you make me a driver that looks just like it?”

In fact, from your 7-iron down to your driver, you likely have at least four, if not five, completely different clubhead designs in order to optimize performance at a given range of lofts. That iron design might evolve to a driving iron design a few degrees lower, then most likely to a hybrid design a few degrees lower than that, then to a fairway wood as lofts get below twenty degrees, and finally to a driver at 9 to 12 degrees.

So, if it takes four to five completely different clubhead designs to optimize performance at the long end of the set, how realistic is it that only one design throughout your set of irons can deliver the performance and precision you need at the short end?

I’ve always believed that every club in your bag has a specific purpose and expectation. Fairway woods, hybrids, and long irons are to get you close to or maybe even on the green from a long-distance approach. With middle irons (5 through 7 or 8), your goal is to get on the green within a reasonable distance, or certainly not to leave yourself a tough greenside save.

Your “money clubs” are those with lofts above 37 to 40 degrees, as this is where you have a chance to get close enough for the occasional one-putt, whether that is for a birdie, par, or bogey. And this is the end of your set where you likely have not spent the time to make sure it’s just right.

To accent just how important this part of your set really is, did you know (if you discount the fact that almost all so-called par-5 holes on the tour are really just long par 4s for those guys) the entire PGA Tour is over par outside 9-iron range?

Something to think about, for sure.

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