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Opinion & Analysis

The best bets for the 2023 Mexico Open

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Let’s not mess about here. Defending champion and pre-event favourite Jon Rahm is probably a gimme this week in Mexico.

With wide, welcoming fairways and holding paspalum greens, the Vidanta Vallarta course offers no particular challenge to anyone above average on the tour, and yet clearly has its bias. At 7400-yards and a par of 71, the Greg Norman track has been used just once before at this level, and it was the obvious factor in driving distance that contributed most to the leaderboard.

The Spaniard led home the driving distance stats last season with six of the next 10 players ranking in the top 12 for bombness. Is that a word? It should be. In newer parlance, go down to 15th placed Chez Reavie to find a player posting negative off-the-tee figures. If you ain’t hitting it, don’t come in.

As for the world number one, he came to Mexico ’22 having slipped from the very top to third place, his top-three finishes in Hawaii and at Torrey Pines not enough to hold off the charging Scottie Scheffler. This time, he arrives having won four events in nine starts, including the Tournament of Champions, American Express, Genesis and, two weeks ago, his second major. Even when entitled to be mentally exhausted, a week later he raised himself up the board at Harbour Town from 92nd after day one, to a never-nearer 15th by check-time.

If that is not enough, the 28-year-old has posted 19 top-10 rankings for driving distance in just 29 starts since the start of 2022, and 12 top-five placings for greens-in-regulation.

If Rahm wants to win, he does it at his leisure. It’s not my job to say lump on a short-priced fav, but there is no blame attached if you make him the standout of the year so far and act as such.

At 5/2-ish, however, he is approaching Tiger Woods territory and that should allow us to eke out a run from a trio of players for whom this course should suit.

At world number 16, Tony Finau‘s claims are clear and he may well be that one that offers a stonking each-way bet to nothing at around 15/2.

 

After 10 leaderboard finishes in majors, Finau was never going to sit on just a lone victory at Puerto Rico, a course with obvious correlation to Vedanta and with a history of long-hitting winners. That said, even the most loyal of fans could not have seen his four victories in under 40 starts.

Those wins include the 2021 Northern Trust where he beat Cam Smith in a play-off with Rahm in third, and a host of major contenders further behind. Flying finishes then saw the 33-year-old finish runner-up to Rahm here, and to Rory McIlroy in Canada, before beating lesser field by three shots at the 3M, Patrick Cantlay et al by five at the Rocket Mortgage and a Houston Open field containing Sheffler and Sam Burns by an easy four strokes last November.

Whilst he hasn’t set the golf world alight in 10 starts this year, Big Tone has made all nine cuts in strokeplay events with six top-10 finishes reminding us all he still has it. He leads the tour in overall approach play, significantly ranking 11th for irons from 175 to 200 yards and is in the top-five for total strokes gained.

Finau will enjoy the open spaces of this event, as he has done when eighth and 16th at Mayakoba, as well as bringing good memories after an improving set of numbers here last year – 71/68/66/63.

Like the favourite, Finau did not have to turn up at the Heritage last time – bizarrely ‘elevated’ considering its position in the calendar (a week after Augusta) – an effort that is easily forgiven.

Look around him in the market. Wyndham Clark is playing excellent golf but has thrown away several chances to break his maiden, including at the Corales in March and last week’s pairs event, the Zurich Classic; Patrick Rodgers owes his fans a few quid as another long-standing non-winner; Alex Noren really should have won on the PGA Tour by now but still lacks, whilst Maverick McNealy is another 35/1 or under that needs to find a bit more when in contention.

Finau is easily the most convincing opposition to the jolly, and I’ll back him up with a pair that may be on the way back to their best.

A single victory on each of the European Tour and Korn Ferry Tour are all that Byeong Hun An has to show for 12 years as a paid golfer, but the hints are there that something will happen soon.

Whilst more famous for that tribute song, the 31-year-old US Amateur champion looked as if both injury and loss of form would keep him from kicking-on from a six stroke victory at the flagship BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, and it surely pleased most that he was able to win again after nearly seven years.

The Florida resident has shown enough since re-qualifying for the big stage in September last season, opening with an always-prominent fourth place at the Fortinet Championship before improving on a pair of mid-field finishes to be 17th in Bermuda.

2023 has seen the affable Korean-born player improve from outside the world’s top 200 to a current 144th after making all eight of his 72-hole strokeplay weekends, efforts that include a fast-finishing 12th at the Sony, 21st at Honda (top-10 going into Sunday) and sixth place in Texas, all events that are wind significant.

Benny then followed up his solid showing at San Antonio with a quiet 13th place finish alongside SH Kim at last week’s pairs event, certainly enough to think he should be contending on a course that will reward his current standing of eighth for distance off the tee, and will be more forgiving to his more wayward drives.

Having been seventh at the higher-class Valspar Championship and then winning the Corales, it is surprising that odds of over 70/1 are available about Matt Wallace, a player that won 10 events from 2016 to 2018.

 

With a profile that hardly speaks of consistency, the Englishman can find form from nowhere, as he did in 2021, when missing two cuts before 18th at Bay Hill and recording figures of mc/mc/mc before a top-15 at Shriners and fourth at the Zozo.

There was similarity to his play in 2022, missing eight cuts and a best of mid-60 finish before fifth and 18th on the DP World Tour and finding form at both the 3M and Rocket Mortgage in-between several missed weekends.

Although the 33-year-old has made just six cuts from 10 starts this year, he started with a pair of top-20s at Abu Dhabi and Dubai before being inside the top 13 through three rounds of the Honda, and then produced season-best results at Copperhead and Dominican Republic.

Being an opposite event meant Wallace needed a similar performance in Texas to qualify for the Masters, but ultimately he faded after an opening 69 to finish just inside the top 30.

The biggest improvement to the world number 115 has been in distance off the tee. In his four most recently completed PGA Tour starts, Wallace averages around 8th for driving distance, whilst his last three events (Valspar, Corales and Texas) see him average 15th for greens-in-regulation.

When asked by Matt Kuchar about his driving prowess, Wallace replied, “So I said it was the combination of driver, the confidence, a little bit different in club dynamics for myself.”

Perfectly happy in the wind and back being confident about his game, he can shake off missed cuts at Harbour Town and at last week’s Zurich Classic to go on another solid run.

Recommended Bets:

  • Tony Finau – WIN
  • Byeung Hun An – WIN/TOP-5
  • Matt Wallace – WIN/TOP-5
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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What is a “wedge” anyway?

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This week’s post is somewhat of a continuation of the recent path we’ve been on, discussing the nuances of those high-loft clubs at the short end of our sets – those specialty clubs we call “wedges.” The real question might be:

“What is a ‘wedge’ anyway?”

Can that name be given to any iron-type club simply based on its loft? And if that’s the defining criteria, where do “wedge” lofts begin? And can clubs of all different design configurations still all be “wedges” just because they fall into that arbitrary range of lofts?

To the first question, my historical research indicates the term “wedge” first came into common use in the 1930s with the invention of the original sand wedge, generally credited to Gene Sarazen. As the legend goes, after flying with Howard Hughes and observing the use of flaps to make the airplane go up or down, he conceived the idea of a downward angle on the sole of a niblick to make it “reject” from the sand. So, after numerous prototypes and testing, the club that came to be known as the “sand wedge” was born.

Those clubs were about 55-56 degrees of loft, and quickly became widely adopted because of this revolutionary performance from bunkers. My guess is the term “wedge” was applied to that club because that’s exactly how you used it – you “wedged” the club between the ball and the turf – loft made the ball go up and the sole made the club “bounce” off the turf.

The professionals of the 1940s and 1950s began to use their sand wedge for more specialty shots around the greens, but most often relied on their highest lofted iron for most routine pitch shots. In sets back then, that club had 50-52 degrees of loft and was often called a “pitching wedge,” but some labeled it simply a “10-iron,” or in Ben Hogan’s case, the Equalizer.

But that club looked like the irons it matched, bearing little resemblance to the specialty “sand wedge” with its big flange and heavy sole, but I really don’t know why it was also called a “wedge.”

As iron lofts began to strengthen in the 1980s, the need for a “gap wedge” came about, as that valuable 50- to 52-degree iron was disappearing. Then at the other end of the set, the “lob wedge” appeared. Both of those clubs bore some resemblance to the sand wedge because they were most often presented as loft extensions in manufacturers’ wedge product lines.

So, now let’s fast-forward to 2023. Most iron sets have a “P-club” of rarely more than 45 degrees, and we’re seeing more and more with as low as 42 degrees of loft. Many of the iron models offer set-matching “wedges” labeled “A”, “G”, “S”, etc. to extend the iron design up into the higher lofts. These all look almost identical to the 6-iron in that set, because this industry is still caught up in the notion of “matched” sets. (But that’s a topic for another day)

In the “wedge” category, product lines can be confusingly broad, with lofts from 46 to 64 degrees and all kinds of specialized sole configurations. So, back to the original question — what is a “wedge?”

Think about it this way.

At the long end of your set, the club with 22 to 24 degrees of loft might be configured as a fairway wood, or a hybrid, or a hollow high-tech “driving iron,” or simply the 4- or 5-iron that matches your irons. Each golfer can determine which configuration serves him or her best at that loft and the distance it produces.

Likewise, the clubs at the higher loft end of your set might look like your 6-iron, or might look like a traditional wedge, or might look like one of the numerous specialty wedges with a wider sole. My “wedge” designs for Edison Golf don’t really look like any of those.

But just like those options you have to build out the long end of your set, each of those various ways to configure a higher-lofted club will produce different results.  So, can we really lump all of these high-loft options into a singular category and call all of them “wedges?”

Or is it time to come up with a totally different word to describe those high-loft clubs in our bags that have the assigned task of delivering consistent results at a range of distances as we get closer to the green?

I’m not sure I have the answer, but it should be fun for all of us to stop and ponder the question? Your thoughts, everyone?

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Opinion & Analysis

The best bets for the 2023 John Deere Classic

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Probably not quite the ‘classic’ of its name, but the John Deere provides some recall of the good and bad of golf betting.

Back in 2013, a young Jordan Spieth made his reputation by sinking a 72nd hole bunker shot to put the willies up course specialist and lumpy bet Zach Johnson. As is the way, the Deere Run guru then bogied his final hole, going on to defeat in a three man play-off.

Fast-forward nine years and J.T Poston landed a confident wager in last year’s event, leading all the way to land a comfortable three shot victory. Can’t wait to see which way it goes this time.

Expect birdies galore around the course this week, with very little difficulty in finding fairways.

With most of the field managing to hit the large greens, GIR stats are less worthy than they might otherwise be. Instead, players need to hit it close enough so they make the majority of putts. As with previous winners Bryson DeChambeau and Lucas Glover (to name just two), high-class ball-strikers can give themselves enough chances to land their share of birdies.

Current form looks a must here this week, with cross-over form from Travelers including Spieth, DeChambeau, Daniel Berger and Brian Harman, and Rocket Mortgage champions Cameron Davis and DeChambeau showing up well at this week’s venue, all recording a similar winning score.

When the market opened, I felt Emiliano Grillo would be third or fourth favourite, so finding him at a bigger price than PGA maidens Denny McCarthy, Adam Schenk and new star on the block Ludvig Aberg was a pleasant surprise.

The three names seem to have more improvement in them than the 30-year-old Argentine, but none have the victories, or the course form, to justify being ahead in the market.

McCarthy has lifted his reputation even further with his play-off loss at Muirfield and leading to halfway at River Highlands, but he faded away when under the cosh here last year, allowing the experienced Grillo to be the closest challenger to Poston (alongside Chritiaan Bezhuidenhout), whilst the 23-year-old Aberg may well be the Second Coming but faded away late on at both River Highlands and Detroit, recording large minus figures for his iron play. Sub 25-1? Really.

Schenk makes a lot of sense on recent form, with iron play making up the most of his impressive tee-to-green stats, but at anything over 25/1 in a weak field, the Charles Schwab winner appeals more than anyone.

Grillo ranks 3rd on tour-tips overall ranking for this event, with half-a-dozen instances of top-25 tee-to-green play in his last eight starts. In the same period (since Bay Hill) the Argentine has listed in the top 12 for approach play on five occasions, leading the field at the Arnold Palmer and ranking 12th at Travelers.

The 15th place at River Highlands on his last outing is the best finish there since 2018 (19th) after which Grillo suffered a slump, falling down the world rankings from 47th to 156th during 2020.

2021 saw him come back with a runner-up behind Stewart Cink at Harbour Town, following up a year later when matching his second place here with a silver medal behind a rampant Tony Finau at the 3M.

Grillo was trending in the right direction before his play-off win at Colonial, with form figures of 7/5/23 and an unconcerning missed-cut at the PGA, and the win, from a nervous Schenk, and the world number one Scottie Scheffler, reads very nicely in this field.

Whilst never the greatest putter in the world, that aspect has improved greatly. Now ranking in 6th for putting average off a large number of greens hit, he has positive figures at five of his last seven starts and comes here recalling last season’s +8.5 strokes tee-to-green and +4 strokes for the flat stick.

Doug Ghim is playing nice golf at the moment, several years after being touted as a superstar.

This test suits the short-hitting but accurate player, and with form figures of 33/15/12/19/27, he’s the type to appeal as a solid top-20 bet.

For win purposes though, I’ll revisit a Grillo formline and row in with the man that lost to the selection by just one shot at the Web.com Tour Championship some eight years ago, Chez Reavie.

I put up the 41-year-old a couple of weeks ago at a monster 200/1 to regain his 2019 Travelers crown, and he gave us a thrill until fading away on Sunday, yet still paying out a healthy return for a place.

A 2021 finish of 18th and a previous pair of top-15 finishes led to him going off around 50/1 for this event 12 months ago, and I’m not sure he’s done anything, or faces tough enough opposition, to be 10 points longer.

Previous to his latest win at the Barracuda in July last year, the three-time winner posted 27th at Colonial and 8th at River Highlands. This time, he comes here after being 12thg at the halfway stage of the Charles Schwab and in second place after three rounds in Connecticut.

Now, with six consecutive cuts made and four of his last eight rounds in the low-to-mid-60s, he arrives after recording an average of between 5.5 and 6.0 strokes for approaches and tee-to-green, a repeat of which will see him bang there come Sunday evening.

With River Highlands and Deere Run form in abundance, he’s yet another old campaigner I feel will prove too much for the young guns.

Finally, we’ll go with a pair of three-figure pokes, firstly in the way of David Lipsky, a player with two wins on the European Tour at tracks that require a touch of guile over strength.

It may be five years since the 34-year-old worked his way around Leopard Creek to back up his Crans victory, but his career has not been devoid of highlights, including a four shot victory over Taylor Pendrith at the short San Antonio course in Texas.

2021 saw him record six top-10 finishes, including at Abu Dhabi and Valderrama, whilst a year later he finished top-10 at the Corales and better-class Mexico Open behine Jon Rahm and Tony Finau.

A  season-opening top-five at the Sony promised much and, whilst it hasn’t gone that well, Lipsky can still boast top-20 finishes at the Charles Schwab and Memorial, where at halfway he was first and sixth respectively.

Always around 24th place last season, Lipsky has shown he can raise his game at a lower level, whilst two of his three victories have come in 25-under and 18-under. He can do a job when conditions suit, and at 125/1, he’ll do as a chance to gain some decent each-way money.

Next to him at 125s is 26-year-old rookie Carl Yuan, now finding his feet at this level yet massive amounts of points bigger than some of his more sexy rivals.

A winner on his home tour, he had a remarkable 2022, winning in Louisiana, and racking up a further four top-five and four top-10 finishes and getting himself in at the highest level a year after he was due.

Explaining why he missed promotion 12 months earlier, Yuan said it was every player’s dream to represent their country, so popped off to The Olympics rather than guarantee his PGA card through the final six events of 2021.

Still, he’s here now and, after a slow start, made three consecutive cuts – Houston, RSM and Sony – before another lull from mid-January.

Shaking that off, he bounced back to form with the halfway lead at the better-class Canadian Open, stating, “That’s my goal [retaining his card] coming into the week. That’s my No. 1 goal. Not a result goal, just like being in the present, hitting shot by shot and, yeah, being out here trying to have the most fun. All of it.”

It seems to be working as he finished a highly respectable 18th before landing another top-20 at Detroit last week after a third-round 64 had gotten him inside the top-10 going into payday.

This massive hitter will be able to club down for most of this week’s test, ensuring he builds on some steady seasonal figures for tee-to-green and with untold improvement to come.

There is a chance he needs a much bigger environment to thrive, but as an unexposed, potentially high-class improving recruit, he needs taking a chance with.

Recommended Bets:

  • Emiliano Grillo 
  • Chez Reavie 
  • David Lipsky 
  • Carl Yuan
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The Wedge Guy: The case against set-match wedges

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One side-effect of the relentless effort by major iron makers to win the “launch monitor wars” that pit one 6- or 7-iron against another is that the lofts throughout sets of irons have been continually strengthened to a point of what I consider ridiculousness. There are two major problems with this trend in specifications for sets of irons. The first is that to try to win the “launch monitor wars,” iron makers have to try to make their 6- and 7-irons go farther than the other guys’. That means making those mid-irons stronger in loft and using a bit of “trickery” by increasing the loft gapping between your higher-loft scoring clubs so that your “P-club” doesn’t get too strong, too (though modern “P-clubs” of 43-45 degrees of loft are really not “pitching wedges” at all).

Historically, iron lofts progressed through the set at four-degree loft intervals, and .5-inch length differentials. This wasn’t happenstance at all, it was the result of rigorous testing by professionals and average golfers. Those technical differences typically delivered consistent distance gapping from the pitching wedge down through the set.

A review of the specifications of almost every set of irons on the market today, however, will reveal that loft differentials are now five degrees between the short irons and as little as two degrees at the long end of the set. This is totally counter-intuitive to how you can improve your short iron and wedge precision. Why in the world would you want to increase the distance differences between your shorter irons, which is where you most need distance control precision? After all, a 6-iron shot that is 25 to 30 feet long or short is pretty darn good, but it sucks if you have a 9-iron or wedge in your hands.

Understand that the “holy grail” of distance in golf club design is the combination of high launch and low spin. Achieving this is relatively simple – put as much mass in the bottom of the golf clubhead as possible.

So, the second major problem caused by the “launch monitor wars” is how modern irons are designed. The early “solution” to longer-hitting mid-irons was extreme sole-weighting with thinner faces. The newer technologies we’re seeing in irons combine even faster faces with heavy tungsten inserts in the sole of the club.

But the problem with almost all irons on the market – especially in the “game improvement” category – is that this same design and technologies are applied throughout the “matched” set of irons and even into “wedges” that display that same design concept. And that’s where your prime scoring clubs are being compromised.

High launch and low spin are great in a driver or fairway wood, and maybe even desirable in your middle irons — but that is the exact opposite of what you need to achieve consistent distance precision in prime scoring range when you have a short iron or wedge in your hands.

Almost all accomplished players have learned to hit their short irons and wedges with a penetrating ball flight and lots of spin to stop the ball in its tracks once it hits the green. So why would you ever want to play short irons and wedges that have all their mass at the bottom, which is designed to deliver the exact opposite of what you should be seeking?

Now, let’s go back to the title of today’s post.

Either your 6- or 7-iron is 28 to 30 degrees of loft – but have you ever stopped to think that this loft is closer to that of your driver than to where your “wedge” lofts begin (around 45 degrees)? I feel certain that no golfer in the history of the world has ever proclaimed

“I really like my 7-iron. Can you make me a driver that looks just like it?”

In fact, from your 7-iron down to your driver, you likely have at least four, if not five, completely different clubhead designs in order to optimize performance at a given range of lofts. That iron design might evolve to a driving iron design a few degrees lower, then most likely to a hybrid design a few degrees lower than that, then to a fairway wood as lofts get below twenty degrees, and finally to a driver at 9 to 12 degrees.

So, if it takes four to five completely different clubhead designs to optimize performance at the long end of the set, how realistic is it that only one design throughout your set of irons can deliver the performance and precision you need at the short end?

I’ve always believed that every club in your bag has a specific purpose and expectation. Fairway woods, hybrids, and long irons are to get you close to or maybe even on the green from a long-distance approach. With middle irons (5 through 7 or 8), your goal is to get on the green within a reasonable distance, or certainly not to leave yourself a tough greenside save.

Your “money clubs” are those with lofts above 37 to 40 degrees, as this is where you have a chance to get close enough for the occasional one-putt, whether that is for a birdie, par, or bogey. And this is the end of your set where you likely have not spent the time to make sure it’s just right.

To accent just how important this part of your set really is, did you know (if you discount the fact that almost all so-called par-5 holes on the tour are really just long par 4s for those guys) the entire PGA Tour is over par outside 9-iron range?

Something to think about, for sure.

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