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The best bets to win the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship

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It appears that the temporary move last year from Quail Hollow to TPC Potomac made little difference at all to the Wells Fargo Championship.

Max Homa backed up his win at the traditional home with victory over Keegan Bradley (18th in 2021), whilst fifth-placed Rory McIlroy added yet another high finish to an extraordinary course record. Further down, Stewart Cink, Brian Harman and James Hahn gave credence to the belief that the course mattered not, but a gnarled experience does.

There were highlights from the younger brigade, with the brilliant maiden Cameron Young getting involved, but this was the Wells Fargo as we know it, where contenders are generally major standard and with enough nous about them to know the rare occasion to attack the course.

Third on his only try, Viktor Hovland called Quail Hollow, “more of kind of a driving range golf course,” whilst two-time winner Max Homa revealed the secret to be, “a lot of 7-irons, 8-irons in, drive it in the fairway.”

Drive it long and straight, have your irons from 170-yards on point, and grind very well if you do miss the greens.

Favourite at around 8/1, Rory McIlroy’s course form is disgusting.

From 11 tries, the world number three has three wins, one runner-up, a fourth place, a pair of eighth-place finishes and a 10th, 16th and 22nd place. However, he seems to have returned to having directional problems with his driver, something that won’t do around here and surely makes single-figure odds of much less appeal than they might have done.

Full respect to Tony Finau, hero of last week’s column, whose usual tee-to-green game would be a massive asset here. However, despite his numerous high finishes in major championships, he has yet to catch fire around Quail (and didn’t around Potomac), recording a best finish of 16th, and that eight years ago.

With Xander Sceuffele unconvincing this year so far, and Viktor Hovland still lacking with the short game, despite openly pleased with the improvement he is making, the stage is set for Patrick Cantlay to win his seventh PGA Tour title, leaping one victory above Max Homa, a player he has a bizarre similarity with.

The world number four loves Muirfield, where he holds two crowns, a third and one fourth – Homa has a fifth and sixth placing. Cantlay has a runner-up from two attempts at TPC Scottsdale, Homa with a sixth and 14th. The world number seven has a recent and best sixth at the Valspar in Florida, and his rival was runner-up on his only start in 2017.

Finally Homa has a win, second, fifth and 10th at classic Riviera, whilst the selection can’t match the victory but has a record of third, fourth and three further top-20 finishes around a course with very similar properties to this week’s test.

If that’s not enough, they’ve also both been called out for slow play this season – Homa during the Match Play, and Cantlay a few times, most notably when in the second-last group at the Masters.

Ignore the controversy as Cantlay himself is doing and look at the golf. He’s the bet of the week.

The 31-year-old Jupiter Island resident has not been out of the world’s top five players since winning a play-off against Bryson DeChambeau at the BMW Championship in 2021, and the following year racked up 10 top-10 finishes from just 20 starts, including a win at his favoured BMW (although on a different course), play-off losses at the Pheonix Open and Heritage, second place behind a rampant Tony Finau in Detroit and a final runner-up spot at his beloved TPC Summerlin, when chasing Tom Kim too hard down the stretch.

2023 has been almost as impressive. No wins as yet, but third behind Jon Rahm and Max Homa at Riviera is top class, as was his one-shot defeat behind play-off protagonists Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth at the elevated RBC Heritage last time out.

In between, Cantlay had chances at Bay Hill before finishing in fourth, whilst he was in that same position going into the final round at Augusta.

Overall rankings have the selection in third place for form over the past three months, third in total driving, 16th in greens-in-regulation and ninth in putting average. He leads the par-5 performance and is 12th for par-4s whilst his ranking of eighth for bogey-avoidance this year gives an easy impression that this course really should suit despite a moderate record from a small sample.

Cantlay was a more-than respectable 33rd at the 2017 PGA Championship held here, and recorded three wins from four matches at the 2022 Presidents Cup last September, so I’m happy to ignore the missed-cut on the number in 2021, his only outing at a full 72-hole stroke play event.

Anyway, who was it that also missed their cut on their first outing at Quail? Ah yes, Max….

We may not have Rahm or Scottie here, but this does look to go the way of one of the classier players in the field. In that respect, it’s tough to go too far down for potential champions, and 2018 championJason Dayshould make obvious appeal after a comeback season, I’m not certain he has the length to compete for a full 72 holes, something that found him out at Augusta.

At double the price, row along with Keith Mitchell, now just outside the top-50 having been ranked closer to 200 in 2010.

The 31-year-old Sea Island resident has an improving record here, with a debut 35th being followed by eighth and third in 2019 and 2021. The former came after a missed-cut at Harbour Town, whilst the best of his efforts followed a finish of 69 at Copperhead – he can play this track without resorting to recent memory.

Although he has only one victory on tour, Mitchell’s win at the 2019 Honda Classic came courtesy of a one shot victory over Rickie Fowler, the 2012 Wells Fargo champion, and fourth-placed Lucas Glover, winner of this week’s event the year previous.

Other notable efforts include top-five finishes at Bay Hill and Riviera (behind major-class Rahm, Homa, Cantlay and Zalatoris) whilst top-15s at the Byron Nelson, Players and Valspar all read well.

Although form seemed to have dropped since the Genesis Invitational, he will have been buoyed by a fifth place finish alongside Sungjae Im at the pairs competition, taking last week’s Mexico event out of his schedule to prepare for this week.

The selection ranks fifth over three months and second over six in the all-round rankings list, mainly off a top-10 for total driving and a solid putter, both aspects being a huge contributor to a solid display here this week.

Of interest to any first-round leader backers may be Mitchell’s regular fast starts. On eight occasions since the start of 2022, Mitchell has had eight top-10 placings after the opening round, five of those inside the top eight, four in the top five. Top that with his three outings here finding him in second, eighth and fourth after Thursday’s finish, and he’ll be worth a look at 60/1 or thereabouts.

If improving Hayden Buckley did not need to scramble, he would be worth a serious look at around 90/1 given his best form ties in with the main contenders.

Top-10 finishes at Summerlin, Jackson, Texas and most recently fifth at the classier-than-usual Heritage are pointers to the potential of the 26-year-old, who highlighted his profile with a 14th at the U.S Open at Brookline (tied third at halfway).  Constantly finding on the field from tee-to-green, he hasn’t shown enough in the classic events mentioned above to warrant a play. Soon, though.

Maybe controversial but despite his admirable consistency at the top level, I remain unconvinced that Sungjae Im has the oomph to get over the line in this type of event. Either way, both are worth a look in the ‘top’ markets, with the Korean’s drift in the outright market making his top-10/20 odds rather appealing.

There are cases to be made for the likes of tee-to-green wizard Emiliano Grillo and Wyndham Clark with 14 cuts in a row, but the former major champion Gary Woodland, playing better than his numbers, is the one for the top-10/20 bet for the week.

The 38-year-old winner of the 2019 U.S Open has back-form at all the right places, with form not only in majors, but at Bay Hill, Muirfield, Scottsdale and at the Honda, all courses that provide links to formlines around Quail.

Whilst he may not have the where-withall to win, his record shows that he repeats form at the same tracks, almost matching his 2014 fourth place here in 2021, when overcoming a missed-cut at the Valspar to lead for two rounds before finishing fifth.

In the 10 starts of 2023, the four time major top-ten player has shot 65 in the second round at the Sony, been top-five after the opening round at Torrey Pines, within the top-10 for the last three days at Riviera, and was top-10 for three rounds at Augusta before finishing 14th.

Woodland’s most recent outing at the Fianu/Rahm match-up in Mexico saw him just outside the top-20 going into Sunday, when he would have found the birdie-fest far removed from his talents.

There are no gimmes with Woodland but he’s at his best when the field can’t get away from him with mid-60 rounds throughout. This should be nothing of that type and he can land his fourth course top-20.

Recommended Bets:

  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Keith Mitchell
  • Keith MitchellFirst-round-leader
  • Gary Woodland – Top-10
  • Gary Woodland – Top-20
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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What is a “wedge” anyway?

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This week’s post is somewhat of a continuation of the recent path we’ve been on, discussing the nuances of those high-loft clubs at the short end of our sets – those specialty clubs we call “wedges.” The real question might be:

“What is a ‘wedge’ anyway?”

Can that name be given to any iron-type club simply based on its loft? And if that’s the defining criteria, where do “wedge” lofts begin? And can clubs of all different design configurations still all be “wedges” just because they fall into that arbitrary range of lofts?

To the first question, my historical research indicates the term “wedge” first came into common use in the 1930s with the invention of the original sand wedge, generally credited to Gene Sarazen. As the legend goes, after flying with Howard Hughes and observing the use of flaps to make the airplane go up or down, he conceived the idea of a downward angle on the sole of a niblick to make it “reject” from the sand. So, after numerous prototypes and testing, the club that came to be known as the “sand wedge” was born.

Those clubs were about 55-56 degrees of loft, and quickly became widely adopted because of this revolutionary performance from bunkers. My guess is the term “wedge” was applied to that club because that’s exactly how you used it – you “wedged” the club between the ball and the turf – loft made the ball go up and the sole made the club “bounce” off the turf.

The professionals of the 1940s and 1950s began to use their sand wedge for more specialty shots around the greens, but most often relied on their highest lofted iron for most routine pitch shots. In sets back then, that club had 50-52 degrees of loft and was often called a “pitching wedge,” but some labeled it simply a “10-iron,” or in Ben Hogan’s case, the Equalizer.

But that club looked like the irons it matched, bearing little resemblance to the specialty “sand wedge” with its big flange and heavy sole, but I really don’t know why it was also called a “wedge.”

As iron lofts began to strengthen in the 1980s, the need for a “gap wedge” came about, as that valuable 50- to 52-degree iron was disappearing. Then at the other end of the set, the “lob wedge” appeared. Both of those clubs bore some resemblance to the sand wedge because they were most often presented as loft extensions in manufacturers’ wedge product lines.

So, now let’s fast-forward to 2023. Most iron sets have a “P-club” of rarely more than 45 degrees, and we’re seeing more and more with as low as 42 degrees of loft. Many of the iron models offer set-matching “wedges” labeled “A”, “G”, “S”, etc. to extend the iron design up into the higher lofts. These all look almost identical to the 6-iron in that set, because this industry is still caught up in the notion of “matched” sets. (But that’s a topic for another day)

In the “wedge” category, product lines can be confusingly broad, with lofts from 46 to 64 degrees and all kinds of specialized sole configurations. So, back to the original question — what is a “wedge?”

Think about it this way.

At the long end of your set, the club with 22 to 24 degrees of loft might be configured as a fairway wood, or a hybrid, or a hollow high-tech “driving iron,” or simply the 4- or 5-iron that matches your irons. Each golfer can determine which configuration serves him or her best at that loft and the distance it produces.

Likewise, the clubs at the higher loft end of your set might look like your 6-iron, or might look like a traditional wedge, or might look like one of the numerous specialty wedges with a wider sole. My “wedge” designs for Edison Golf don’t really look like any of those.

But just like those options you have to build out the long end of your set, each of those various ways to configure a higher-lofted club will produce different results.  So, can we really lump all of these high-loft options into a singular category and call all of them “wedges?”

Or is it time to come up with a totally different word to describe those high-loft clubs in our bags that have the assigned task of delivering consistent results at a range of distances as we get closer to the green?

I’m not sure I have the answer, but it should be fun for all of us to stop and ponder the question? Your thoughts, everyone?

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Opinion & Analysis

The best bets for the 2023 John Deere Classic

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Probably not quite the ‘classic’ of its name, but the John Deere provides some recall of the good and bad of golf betting.

Back in 2013, a young Jordan Spieth made his reputation by sinking a 72nd hole bunker shot to put the willies up course specialist and lumpy bet Zach Johnson. As is the way, the Deere Run guru then bogied his final hole, going on to defeat in a three man play-off.

Fast-forward nine years and J.T Poston landed a confident wager in last year’s event, leading all the way to land a comfortable three shot victory. Can’t wait to see which way it goes this time.

Expect birdies galore around the course this week, with very little difficulty in finding fairways.

With most of the field managing to hit the large greens, GIR stats are less worthy than they might otherwise be. Instead, players need to hit it close enough so they make the majority of putts. As with previous winners Bryson DeChambeau and Lucas Glover (to name just two), high-class ball-strikers can give themselves enough chances to land their share of birdies.

Current form looks a must here this week, with cross-over form from Travelers including Spieth, DeChambeau, Daniel Berger and Brian Harman, and Rocket Mortgage champions Cameron Davis and DeChambeau showing up well at this week’s venue, all recording a similar winning score.

When the market opened, I felt Emiliano Grillo would be third or fourth favourite, so finding him at a bigger price than PGA maidens Denny McCarthy, Adam Schenk and new star on the block Ludvig Aberg was a pleasant surprise.

The three names seem to have more improvement in them than the 30-year-old Argentine, but none have the victories, or the course form, to justify being ahead in the market.

McCarthy has lifted his reputation even further with his play-off loss at Muirfield and leading to halfway at River Highlands, but he faded away when under the cosh here last year, allowing the experienced Grillo to be the closest challenger to Poston (alongside Chritiaan Bezhuidenhout), whilst the 23-year-old Aberg may well be the Second Coming but faded away late on at both River Highlands and Detroit, recording large minus figures for his iron play. Sub 25-1? Really.

Schenk makes a lot of sense on recent form, with iron play making up the most of his impressive tee-to-green stats, but at anything over 25/1 in a weak field, the Charles Schwab winner appeals more than anyone.

Grillo ranks 3rd on tour-tips overall ranking for this event, with half-a-dozen instances of top-25 tee-to-green play in his last eight starts. In the same period (since Bay Hill) the Argentine has listed in the top 12 for approach play on five occasions, leading the field at the Arnold Palmer and ranking 12th at Travelers.

The 15th place at River Highlands on his last outing is the best finish there since 2018 (19th) after which Grillo suffered a slump, falling down the world rankings from 47th to 156th during 2020.

2021 saw him come back with a runner-up behind Stewart Cink at Harbour Town, following up a year later when matching his second place here with a silver medal behind a rampant Tony Finau at the 3M.

Grillo was trending in the right direction before his play-off win at Colonial, with form figures of 7/5/23 and an unconcerning missed-cut at the PGA, and the win, from a nervous Schenk, and the world number one Scottie Scheffler, reads very nicely in this field.

Whilst never the greatest putter in the world, that aspect has improved greatly. Now ranking in 6th for putting average off a large number of greens hit, he has positive figures at five of his last seven starts and comes here recalling last season’s +8.5 strokes tee-to-green and +4 strokes for the flat stick.

Doug Ghim is playing nice golf at the moment, several years after being touted as a superstar.

This test suits the short-hitting but accurate player, and with form figures of 33/15/12/19/27, he’s the type to appeal as a solid top-20 bet.

For win purposes though, I’ll revisit a Grillo formline and row in with the man that lost to the selection by just one shot at the Web.com Tour Championship some eight years ago, Chez Reavie.

I put up the 41-year-old a couple of weeks ago at a monster 200/1 to regain his 2019 Travelers crown, and he gave us a thrill until fading away on Sunday, yet still paying out a healthy return for a place.

A 2021 finish of 18th and a previous pair of top-15 finishes led to him going off around 50/1 for this event 12 months ago, and I’m not sure he’s done anything, or faces tough enough opposition, to be 10 points longer.

Previous to his latest win at the Barracuda in July last year, the three-time winner posted 27th at Colonial and 8th at River Highlands. This time, he comes here after being 12thg at the halfway stage of the Charles Schwab and in second place after three rounds in Connecticut.

Now, with six consecutive cuts made and four of his last eight rounds in the low-to-mid-60s, he arrives after recording an average of between 5.5 and 6.0 strokes for approaches and tee-to-green, a repeat of which will see him bang there come Sunday evening.

With River Highlands and Deere Run form in abundance, he’s yet another old campaigner I feel will prove too much for the young guns.

Finally, we’ll go with a pair of three-figure pokes, firstly in the way of David Lipsky, a player with two wins on the European Tour at tracks that require a touch of guile over strength.

It may be five years since the 34-year-old worked his way around Leopard Creek to back up his Crans victory, but his career has not been devoid of highlights, including a four shot victory over Taylor Pendrith at the short San Antonio course in Texas.

2021 saw him record six top-10 finishes, including at Abu Dhabi and Valderrama, whilst a year later he finished top-10 at the Corales and better-class Mexico Open behine Jon Rahm and Tony Finau.

A  season-opening top-five at the Sony promised much and, whilst it hasn’t gone that well, Lipsky can still boast top-20 finishes at the Charles Schwab and Memorial, where at halfway he was first and sixth respectively.

Always around 24th place last season, Lipsky has shown he can raise his game at a lower level, whilst two of his three victories have come in 25-under and 18-under. He can do a job when conditions suit, and at 125/1, he’ll do as a chance to gain some decent each-way money.

Next to him at 125s is 26-year-old rookie Carl Yuan, now finding his feet at this level yet massive amounts of points bigger than some of his more sexy rivals.

A winner on his home tour, he had a remarkable 2022, winning in Louisiana, and racking up a further four top-five and four top-10 finishes and getting himself in at the highest level a year after he was due.

Explaining why he missed promotion 12 months earlier, Yuan said it was every player’s dream to represent their country, so popped off to The Olympics rather than guarantee his PGA card through the final six events of 2021.

Still, he’s here now and, after a slow start, made three consecutive cuts – Houston, RSM and Sony – before another lull from mid-January.

Shaking that off, he bounced back to form with the halfway lead at the better-class Canadian Open, stating, “That’s my goal [retaining his card] coming into the week. That’s my No. 1 goal. Not a result goal, just like being in the present, hitting shot by shot and, yeah, being out here trying to have the most fun. All of it.”

It seems to be working as he finished a highly respectable 18th before landing another top-20 at Detroit last week after a third-round 64 had gotten him inside the top-10 going into payday.

This massive hitter will be able to club down for most of this week’s test, ensuring he builds on some steady seasonal figures for tee-to-green and with untold improvement to come.

There is a chance he needs a much bigger environment to thrive, but as an unexposed, potentially high-class improving recruit, he needs taking a chance with.

Recommended Bets:

  • Emiliano Grillo 
  • Chez Reavie 
  • David Lipsky 
  • Carl Yuan
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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: The case against set-match wedges

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One side-effect of the relentless effort by major iron makers to win the “launch monitor wars” that pit one 6- or 7-iron against another is that the lofts throughout sets of irons have been continually strengthened to a point of what I consider ridiculousness. There are two major problems with this trend in specifications for sets of irons. The first is that to try to win the “launch monitor wars,” iron makers have to try to make their 6- and 7-irons go farther than the other guys’. That means making those mid-irons stronger in loft and using a bit of “trickery” by increasing the loft gapping between your higher-loft scoring clubs so that your “P-club” doesn’t get too strong, too (though modern “P-clubs” of 43-45 degrees of loft are really not “pitching wedges” at all).

Historically, iron lofts progressed through the set at four-degree loft intervals, and .5-inch length differentials. This wasn’t happenstance at all, it was the result of rigorous testing by professionals and average golfers. Those technical differences typically delivered consistent distance gapping from the pitching wedge down through the set.

A review of the specifications of almost every set of irons on the market today, however, will reveal that loft differentials are now five degrees between the short irons and as little as two degrees at the long end of the set. This is totally counter-intuitive to how you can improve your short iron and wedge precision. Why in the world would you want to increase the distance differences between your shorter irons, which is where you most need distance control precision? After all, a 6-iron shot that is 25 to 30 feet long or short is pretty darn good, but it sucks if you have a 9-iron or wedge in your hands.

Understand that the “holy grail” of distance in golf club design is the combination of high launch and low spin. Achieving this is relatively simple – put as much mass in the bottom of the golf clubhead as possible.

So, the second major problem caused by the “launch monitor wars” is how modern irons are designed. The early “solution” to longer-hitting mid-irons was extreme sole-weighting with thinner faces. The newer technologies we’re seeing in irons combine even faster faces with heavy tungsten inserts in the sole of the club.

But the problem with almost all irons on the market – especially in the “game improvement” category – is that this same design and technologies are applied throughout the “matched” set of irons and even into “wedges” that display that same design concept. And that’s where your prime scoring clubs are being compromised.

High launch and low spin are great in a driver or fairway wood, and maybe even desirable in your middle irons — but that is the exact opposite of what you need to achieve consistent distance precision in prime scoring range when you have a short iron or wedge in your hands.

Almost all accomplished players have learned to hit their short irons and wedges with a penetrating ball flight and lots of spin to stop the ball in its tracks once it hits the green. So why would you ever want to play short irons and wedges that have all their mass at the bottom, which is designed to deliver the exact opposite of what you should be seeking?

Now, let’s go back to the title of today’s post.

Either your 6- or 7-iron is 28 to 30 degrees of loft – but have you ever stopped to think that this loft is closer to that of your driver than to where your “wedge” lofts begin (around 45 degrees)? I feel certain that no golfer in the history of the world has ever proclaimed

“I really like my 7-iron. Can you make me a driver that looks just like it?”

In fact, from your 7-iron down to your driver, you likely have at least four, if not five, completely different clubhead designs in order to optimize performance at a given range of lofts. That iron design might evolve to a driving iron design a few degrees lower, then most likely to a hybrid design a few degrees lower than that, then to a fairway wood as lofts get below twenty degrees, and finally to a driver at 9 to 12 degrees.

So, if it takes four to five completely different clubhead designs to optimize performance at the long end of the set, how realistic is it that only one design throughout your set of irons can deliver the performance and precision you need at the short end?

I’ve always believed that every club in your bag has a specific purpose and expectation. Fairway woods, hybrids, and long irons are to get you close to or maybe even on the green from a long-distance approach. With middle irons (5 through 7 or 8), your goal is to get on the green within a reasonable distance, or certainly not to leave yourself a tough greenside save.

Your “money clubs” are those with lofts above 37 to 40 degrees, as this is where you have a chance to get close enough for the occasional one-putt, whether that is for a birdie, par, or bogey. And this is the end of your set where you likely have not spent the time to make sure it’s just right.

To accent just how important this part of your set really is, did you know (if you discount the fact that almost all so-called par-5 holes on the tour are really just long par 4s for those guys) the entire PGA Tour is over par outside 9-iron range?

Something to think about, for sure.

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